Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 18.638474 21.245397 24.054196 27.301619 30.948763 34.914328 39.548638
2025-01-05 15.188194 18.814111 23.020566 28.245187 34.543455 41.873311 51.031489
2025-01-12 12.899365 16.862810 21.684832 27.953879 35.856448 45.452307 57.948448
2025-01-19 10.659944 14.638833 19.693897 26.542937 35.529717 46.862791 62.172067
2025-01-26 9.732469 13.928566 19.455862 27.205716 37.716079 51.387706 70.415801
2025-02-02 8.991608 13.361920 19.310910 27.914235 39.933659 56.007320 78.980812
2025-02-09 8.094248 12.467242 18.608269 27.752635 40.889131 58.917352 85.329451
2025-02-16 7.264298 11.576909 17.814726 27.362928 41.443497 61.240742 90.920163
2025-02-23 6.690991 11.005950 17.420078 27.490712 42.702587 64.568339 98.042772
2025-03-02 6.236486 10.569351 17.177942 27.803945 44.218597 68.303192 105.897510
2025-03-09 5.775321 10.076120 16.801435 27.866636 45.332271 71.468641 113.029530
2025-03-16 5.293960 9.503991 16.250458 27.602805 45.901905 73.813930 119.002273
2025-03-23 4.948637 9.137700 16.013932 27.842083 47.302621 77.542811 127.359475
2025-03-30 4.759470 9.022497 16.178602 28.742159 49.807826 83.107622 138.848843
2025-04-06 4.376635 8.529400 15.666124 28.466067 50.355754 85.578992 145.524606
2025-04-13 3.838284 7.705472 14.520549 27.024963 48.862014 84.668163 146.680387
2025-04-20 3.687414 7.584904 14.596014 27.700956 50.979547 89.735565 157.810952
2025-04-27 3.553659 7.484135 14.696448 28.420608 53.200998 95.064176 169.596438
2025-05-04 3.305945 7.139482 14.323982 28.256549 53.851397 97.760604 177.052092
2025-05-11 3.049381 6.753910 13.845283 27.860245 54.053659 99.682289 183.246279
2025-05-18 2.880001 6.530418 13.656901 27.990193 55.207334 103.290863 192.495063
2025-05-25 2.745457 6.367368 13.572552 28.308655 56.717053 107.580201 203.103130
2025-06-01 2.592000 6.150451 13.365374 28.372397 57.746234 111.047320 212.382429